Sunday, May 18, 2008

At best, four years of a McCain presidency equals a rear guard retreat for the GOP

At times I've wondered if St. John might not be a sacrificial lamb. After Dubyah's "Reign of Error", the GOP is indeed damaged. Although the GOP division is real, a good number of his detractors are at least acting as if they will support Huggy Bear. I also believe these folks, if nothing else, can take the long view. Many will do pretty much anything to win an election and perhaps that might be especially so if they think predictions of Democratic gains in Congress will hold.

Steven Thomma and Margaret Talev of McClatchy Newspapers report Big GOP losses in Congress likely, even if McCain wins. Quoting Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, they write
"If it's McCain ... he would find his domestic policies dead on arrival. His only real influence with Congress would be in the foreign sphere."

While that "foreign sphere" gets me worried something fierce, I will also suggest we need Progressive solutions at home and we need them soon. Dead on arrival is hardly the dreamiest scenario I can think of should St. John and the right wing pull this off. Four years is I think too long to wait. I worry that the Democratic Party will not go far enough even if given the chance, and that's something the McClatchy piece covers, yet that's a post for another day.

John McCain, especially at his age, might be set up for failure, if elected or not. I wonder if his candidacy is about the GOP treading water and trying to get ready for the next run at power. The Corporatists, and others in their coalition of odd bedfellows, have made serious gains, including the critical banking of billions, in these years. They've done OK and can afford a holding action or maybe even a strategic retreat.

Win or lose the White House, the GOP will get to play the victim even more easily than they manage to do even while in rather solid control of the government. Also, the GOP does insurgency rather well. It's almost necessary for them to operate that way. Their Big Mules and Bible Thumpers and ... may very well be more able to fuse their interests under the circumstances of a McCain win than if he loses. I expect it would at least delay fractures that others have predicted.

Any thoughts? John Gunn

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